That’s not what we meant by GooTube…

Google’s appears headed down the, well, tubes. I think we could see that coming. Well maybe not, but think about it - how long could it last. Ignoring the ‘every giant must fall,’ logic there are a number of reasons I think a Google downturn is in the works.

Purely speculation but… With the success of Google, Web 2.0 was born. A couple of years ago when the whole web2.0 thing was just getting started (and a term I could stand) it lacked credibility. It was just a bunch of guys that were trying to chase the same success that only Google was having with the web. Now that people have realized that this isn’t just another bust and actually has some concepts that have real world application (and we can use them on always-on connections) the mainstream (to a disgusting point) has accepted them. What does this mean for Google? It means it’s not alone. With more success everywhere more advertisers are diversifying their web marketing opportunities. And that makes sense. I can advertise on Google and that’s cool - but people use Google (most people) in a very quick fashion. I go, I look for info, and I leave. Now think about Facebook - people are on their for ever - thus increasing the chance that your ad will actually be noticed. Their is, of course, a substantial difference in cost to advertise, but for larger companies it is worth it. Yes, Google has made its bread and butter on charging small amounts millions of times, but it still hurts to lose the large chunks that come in all at once.

Then, there is the nature of the ads. Quick one liners that are off to the right. Which you are only clicked when the “real” results aren’t good enough. Enter the SEM (search engine marketer). For years they been portrayed as the snake-oil salesmen (and there are some scammers) but they’re doing well. They’re making progress, which is actually making search results better. And not only are the SEMs themselves getting better, but the general knowledge base they contributed to has increased. It’s much easier to learn the basics of SEO and thus make your website more attractive to search engines than it was a few years ago. In general - results are just getting better, which decreases the value of PPC ads. And it’s not just the SEMs, the algorithms are getting better too - making “free” results more relevant and therefore the paid results less.

This just skims the surface of all the potential reasons that Google is down (though still doing very well) - but this is the core of Google’s business and I don’t think it is perpetually sustainable as many think.